Energy and Environmental Economics (E3), a Willdan Company, evaluated long-term energy scenarios in
California through 2050 using the California PATHWAYS model. These scenarios investigate options and
costs to achieve a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2030 and an 80% reduction by
2050, relative to 1990 levels.
All of the ten mitigation scenarios evaluated are characterized by high levels of energy efficiency
and conservation, renewable electricity generation, and transportation electrification. They differ in
assumptions about biofuels and building electrification. To achieve high levels of adoption of
electric vehicles, energy efficiency and electrification in buildings, near-term action is necessary
to avoid costly replacement of long-lived equipment in 10-15 years. Furthermore, market transformation
is essential to reduce the capital cost of electric vehicles and heat pumps.
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